Analysis: Yemen Reacts to Assad’s Fall – Government Optimistic, Houthis Silent
تاريخ النشر: 11th, December 2024 GMT
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has drawn mixed reactions across Yemen, a nation whose own conflict bears striking similarities to the Syrian scenario. Both nations share key features, including their experience during the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 and the profound influence of external actors.
Yemen and Syria are both part of the Arab Spring. In Yemen, the uprising led to the ousting of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh (1978–2012) after prolonged protests, only for him to later align with the Houthi movement. In contrast, Bashar al-Assad managed to retain power in Syria, plunging the country into a bloody and complex civil war.
Yemen's transitional period, marked by the 2013 National Dialogue Conference initiated under the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) framework, was once considered a potential model for Syria. However, the conspiracy against the outcomes of the National Dialogue Conference, and Yemen's descent into conflict, spearheaded by the Houthi alliance with Saleh, made the implementation of such a model in Syria unfeasible.
The parallels between the two countries, their uprisings, regimes, and subsequent consequences are striking, though with some key distinctions. Most notably, Bashar al-Assad's regime was far more brutal compared to Yemen’s Saleh. Both nations, however, share a significant connection to a common external force: Iran, which has identified them as part of four nations under its influence, asserting control through direct intervention or by utilizing local proxies.
External involvement has played a powerful role in both Yemen and Syria. In Yemen, fragmentation has given rise to diverse allegiances: one faction aligns with Iran, represented by the Houthi movement, while the Yemeni government is backed by a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. A similar dynamic exists in Syria, where Iran plays a central role, while armed opposition groups receive significant external support.
Government and Political Responses
The Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, led by Rashad Al-Alimi and comprising eight members, was quick to issue a statement on the fall of Assad. The council congratulated the Syrian opposition, praised Syria's return to the Arab fold, and reaffirmed Yemen’s commitment to Syria’s territorial integrity and independence. However, the statement also underscored concerns over Iranian influence, labeling Syria as under Iranian tutelage.
Pro-government political parties in Yemen echoed similar sentiments. The National Bloc for Political Parties, a recently formed coalition based in Aden, celebrated the developments in Syria as an opportunity for stability and a rejection of Iranian dominance. This perspective aligns with Saudi Arabia's supportive stance toward these parties, despite the recent thaw in Saudi-Iranian relations.
In their statement, the parties characterized Assad's fall as an opportunity to confront the Houthi movement and bring an end to its coup in Yemen. While this aspiration is evident in their rhetoric, it remains confined to political declarations. The complexities of Yemen's conflict, coupled with the multitude of local and international actors involved, continue to hinder any tangible progress toward a breakthrough.
Public and Factional Responses
Various factions were quick to express their views on the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. The Supreme Council of Popular Resistance, led by Sheikh Hamoud Al-Mekhlafi—one of the first figures to lead armed resistance against the Houthi movement and its ally, former President Saleh, in Taiz—issued a statement calling for Yemenis to reclaim their state. This was seen as a hint toward replicating the Syrian opposition’s model to confront the Houthis.
In Taiz, a city besieged by the Houthis and scarred by years of conflict, dozens took to the streets to celebrate Syria’s developments. Protesters raised banners declaring that Sana’a, under Houthi control, should be the next city to be liberated from what they described as Iranian influence.
Similar celebrations were observed in Al-Hudaydah, in areas controlled by the Yemeni government. In Al-Khokha, under the command of Presidential Leadership Council member Tariq Saleh, symbolic festivities coincided with the anniversary of the city’s liberation from the Houthis.
Houthis Silent
The Houthis have remained conspicuously silent regarding developments in Syria. Historically, the group has openly supported Assad, framing the Syrian conflict as a conspiracy by Türkiye and other states against the so-called "Axis of Resistance," a coalition led by Iran, of which the Houthis are a key component.
Notably, the Houthis launched drone strikes toward Israel just one day after the fall of Assad’s. This could be interpreted as a calculated message that these events do not concern them and that they remain capable of exerting influence.
Their silence was most evident in Sana’a, where the response was limited to condemning Israeli advances near Syria’s Quneitra border the day after the fall of Assad’s regime. Historically, the Houthis had maintained ties with Assad’s regime; Damascus was the only Arab capital to accept a Houthi ambassador, who represented their interests until this arrangement ended.
Recent reports by Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper revealed that Houthi embassy staff in Damascus departed late last year at the request of the Syrian regime, which was reportedly under Saudi-Emirati pressure.
The Southern Transitional Council’s Reserved Stance
The Southern Transitional Council (STC), a UAE-backed entity that participates in Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council and advocates for southern secession, has remained silent regarding the developments in Syria. This silence likely stems from the council's alignment with the UAE, which had publicly expressed support for Assad just days before his fall. Consequently, the STC appeared to adopt a cautious stance, refraining from commenting on the events in Syria.
Summary of the Situation
The developments in Syria have deepened divisions among Yemeni factions. However, they have also sparked a broader interest in drawing lessons from the Syrian experience, both at the governmental and public levels. The exception remains the Houthi movement, which appears acutely aware of how these events could impact its survival and agenda. This awareness likely explains its silence and could potentially prompt actions that influence the trajectory of the ongoing conflict. Recent international attention on the country has grown, largely due to escalating Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea regions, as well as their strikes targeting Israel.
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المصدر: الموقع بوست
كلمات دلالية: the Houthis The Houthis
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A mysterious airstrip built on a Yemeni island comes as Houthi rebels are increasingly squeezed
A new airstrip is being built on a volcanic island in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen, satellite images show, likely the latest project by forces allied to those opposed to the country’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.
The airstrip on Zuqar Island provides yet another link in a network of offshore bases in a region key to international shipping, where the Houthis already have attacked over 100 ships, sank four vessels and killed at least nine mariners during the Israel-Hamas war.
It could give a military force the ability to conduct aerial surveillance over the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the strategic, narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait connecting the two waterways off East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.
Still, it remains unclear what would trigger the airstrip to be used for a military campaign. The United Arab Emirates, which has built other runways in the region, did not respond to requests for comment. Nor did Yemen’s anti-Houthi forces, divided by warring interests and unable to launch a coordinated assault against the rebels even after intense American and Israeli bombing campaigns that targeted them.
In recent months, the anti-Houthi forces have been able to interdict more cargo bound for the Houthis, something that having a presence on Zuqar could aid.
“The possibility of a new Yemeni offensive against the Houthis, backed by the Saudi-led coalition, can’t be ruled out, although I don’t see it as approaching,” said Eleonora Ardemagni, an analyst at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies who long has studied Yemen.
“There’s a more important point in my view regarding the build up in Zuqar: the countering of Houthis’ smuggling activities, with particular regard to weapons,” she said.
A runway on a strategic island
Satellite photos from Planet Labs PBC analyzed by The Associated Press show the construction of a nearly 2,000-meter (6,560-foot) runway on Zuqar Island, which is some 90 kilometers (55 miles) southeast of the Houthi-held port city of Hodeida, a key shipping hub.
The images show work began in April to build out a dock on the island, then land clearing along the site of the runway. By late August, what appears to be asphalt was being laid across the runway. Images from October show the work continuing, with runway markings painted on in the middle of the month.
No one has claimed the construction. However, ship-tracking data analyzed by the AP show the Batsa, a Togolese-flagged bulk carrier registered to a Dubai-based maritime firm, spent nearly a week alongside the new dock at Zuqar Island after coming from Berbera in Somaliland, the site of a DP World port. DP World declined to comment.
A Dubai-based maritime company, Saif Shipping and Marine Services, acknowledged receiving an order to deliver the asphalt to the island likely used in the airstrip’s construction on behalf of other UAE-based firms. Other Emirates-based maritime firms have been associated with other airstrip construction projects in Yemen later tied back to the UAE.
The UAE is believed to be behind multiple runway projects in recent years in Yemen. In Mocha on the Red Sea, a project to extend that city’s airport now allows it to land far larger aircraft. Local officials attributed that project to the UAE, a federation of seven sheikhdoms, including Abu Dhabi and Dubai. There is also now a runway in nearby Dhubab.
Another runway is on Abd al-Kuri Island, in the Indian Ocean near the mouth of the Gulf of Aden. And in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait itself, another runway built by the UAE is on Mayun Island. An anti-Houthi secessionist force in Yemen known as the Southern Transitional Council, which has long been backed by the UAE, controls the island and has acknowledged the UAE’s role in building the airport.
Targeting of Houthi shipments
Zuqar Island is a strategic location in the Red Sea. Eritrea captured the island in 1995 after battling Yemeni forces. An international court in 1998 placed the island formally into Yemen’s custody.
The island again found itself engulfed by war after the Houthis seized Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, in 2014 and began a march south, when the rebels took Zuqar.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE entered the war in 2015 on behalf of the country’s exiled government, stopping the Houthi advance. They also beat back the Houthis from Zuqar, retaking the island, which has become a staging ground for naval forces loyal to Tariq Saleh, a nephew of Yemen’s late strongman leader Ali Abdullah Saleh.
The younger Saleh, once allied to the Houthis before his uncle switched sides and the rebels killed him, has been backed by the UAE.
Since then, the front lines of the war have been static for years.
What changed was the Houthis’ taking their campaign globally with attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. That continued even after a weekslong campaign of intense airstrikes known as Operation Rough Rider launched by the United States and continued strikes by Israel, which appear to be getting closer to the Houthis’ top leadership despite the rebels’ penchant for secrecy.
“The Houthis, like any insurgent group, win by not losing,” wrote Gregory D. Johnsen, a Yemen expert, in June. “It is how the group has survived and grown from each of its wars.”
While a loose confederation of anti-Houthi groups exists, it remains fragmented and did not launch any attacks during the U.S. airstrikes. But the growing network of air bases around Yemen comes as anti-Houthi forces have made several significant seizures of weapons, likely bound for the rebels — including one large haul that was praised by the U.S. military’s Central Command.
“A likely Emirati airstrip in Zuqar could serve to improve surveillance and monitoring off the Hodeida coast to better support Yemeni forces in tackling smuggling,” Ardemagni said.
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